approval ratings

This morning, Dave Weigel tweeted “Unpopular/overreaching GOP governors in OH, WI, FL -- good or bad for GOP's prez ticket?”. That really got me thinking about the upcoming general elections.

• The first actual poll of Ohio Governor John Kasich was released this morning. In it they find his approval rating at a dismal 40%, with a 47% disapproval. That is lower than his three predecessors at the same point in their tenure.
• In Florida, Rick Scott’s approval rating was at 35% last month (the last available data).
• Then we hit Wisconsin and the infamous Scott Walker. His approval rating is the highest of the three, at 43%, even though that was a poll from Rasmussen.

But in all three of these states, their newly elected governors are behind President Obama in approval ratings, even in their own states:

Like many others, I have spent the last few days really contemplating what will happen in the elections this November. As much as I want to be optimistic, I just can’t bring myself to it. Democrats are looking at a very dark mid-term and, as Peter Daou puts it, these are “dark days for the left”.

But what happened? What caused the rapid fall from glory for President Obama over the past two years? When he was sworn in as the 44^th President of the United States, Barack Obama enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings in history. Now he is treading water to keep from hitting bottom. I believe there are three main factors that play into this; healthcare, economy and war. I want to take a minute and look at what happened with each of these issues and how it turned the base sour on the President.

So I was reading this over at Power Line:

Whenever President Bush talked about immigration, his approval ratings went down. It was like clockwork: liberals never understood that the fatal decline in Bush's popularity during his second term had at least as much to do with his advocacy of "comprehensive immigration reform" as with war-weariness. Now President Obama has entered the lists, urging Congress to take up immigration. One can only wonder what Congressional Democrats make of this. Maybe they figure their own approval ratings can't possibly get any lower. But Obama's can, and they will if he keeps talking about immigration.

Yes Bush’s approval rating went down when he talked about immigration, but why? Well let’s think about it for a minute.

From the start of the Iraq War on, Bush’s approval rating was dropping. Most of that was coming from a loss of support amongst Democrats. In 2007, when Bush finally took up immigration, his approval rating was already in the low 30’s. His support amongst Democrats was down to single digits. Once Bush’s immigration plan came out his approval rating dipped into the 20’s, but his approval rating amongst Democrats stayed the same.

So while what John stated has some truth, the potential outcome he proposes is totally false. President Obama already has a dismal approval rating amongst the right, but if he pushes comprehensive immigration reform, he would see a boost from the left, increasing his approval rating.

One of the things the right has constantly done is tried to claim ownership of the phrase “immigration reform”. When they see polls reporting 60% wanting immigration reform, the right instantly believes that means they want THEIR immigration reform. But let’s look at a poll from last year:

It looks like there is some bigger troubles brewing inside the Republican ranks:

GOP leaders, in a private meeting last month, delivered a blunt and at times heated message to RNC Chairman Michael Steele: quit meddling in policy.

The plea was made during what was supposed to be a routine discussion about polling matters and other priorities in House Minority Leader John Boehner’s office. But the session devolved into a heated discussion about the roles of congressional leadership and Steele, according to multiple people familiar with the meeting.

The congressional leaders were particularly miffed that Steele had in late August unveiled a seniors’ “health care bill of rights” without consulting with them. The statement of health care principles, outlined in a Washington Post op-ed, began with a robust defense of Medicare that puzzled some in a party not known for its attachment to entitlements.

This just highlights the problem the RNC has had – no clear leadership. On one hand some want to jump up and act like the savior, while on the other hand - who would want to be seen piloting the sinking ship? Sure the media wants you to think that the Democratic party is the sinking ship right now, and while their numbers are going down, so are the Republican numbers. When was the last time that the opposition party had approval ratings so low?

With President Obama’s first pick for a Supreme Court justice looming, I am sitting here wondering if the GOP will try to block his pick.

There is an interesting timing here. On the same week Arlen Specter switched parties, Souter announces his retirement. Specter was the ranking member of the judiciary committee and the friendliest Republican towards Democrats. Now the Republicans can reorganize the committee a little bit and maybe filibuster an Obama pick at the committee level.

But how would this work out?

We have a President who has an approval rating in the upper 60s and a likeable rating over 80%. We are still on the heels of a historic election where the American people undeniably sounded the alarm for change. And then we have the Republicans, with their dismal approval ratings, who has been resoundingly the party of “no”.

This pick will play out into the summer – that’s a given. Everyday it plays out will put us a little bit closer to the next primary and mid-term election. Considering the power of liberal interest groups like MoveOn, if President Obama makes a choice that appeases our side and the GOP tries every move to block them, we can use this strong arsenal to fire back at the Republicans, putting them on the defense even more. This can even have an effect on House races, even though they have no part in the selection process.

Another thing we have on our side is plenty of footage of the Republicans throwing tantrums over the “up or down vote”. Remember the whole “nuclear option” thing when Alito was nominated? Republicans threatened to get rid of the filibuster if Democrats used it against a Bush pick. I don’t believe that should be done, but it would be a great tool to have on the table to fight back against the Grand Obstructionist Party.

We are rapidly losing jobs. The economy is on the brink. This week has been no better, yet Republican leadership continues to play games with the stimulus bill. Here’s how the Democrats need to proceed on it.

The stimulus package has strong public support, while the Republican leaders opposing it have some of the lowest approval ratings. So the Democrats should place all the concessions they made to appease Republicans right back in the bill and bring it up for a vote. Then they need to get every surrogate out to the networks explaining to the American people that they were trying to work with Republicans, but Republicans had no intention of seeing this bill passed. All of this went down while hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their jobs.

Elections have consequences and the people spoke during the last two election cycles by denouncing Republican ideas. It’s time for the Democrats to start listening to the people and recognize their new found power, instead of bowing to the highly unpopular Republicans.

The American electorate is smart, and they will see that the Republicans are trying to block the salvation of our economy. The people were able to see through the Republicans in the last session of Congress. We had the worst approved Congress in our nation’s history, yet the people voted overwhelmingly to give more control to the party of power. That means they knew the Republicans were the taint, and if the Democrats do the right thing now then they will continue to see that taint and give the Democrats even more power in 2010. It’s not that complicated. Stop acting like a bunch of "friends” and “good ol’ boys” up there on Capital Hill and act like leaders.

Some troubling numbers from Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell four more points on Saturday to once again reach an all-time low. At 60.1, the Index is down three points from yesterday, down fourteen points from a month ago and down thirty-nine points from the beginning of the year.

Seventy-three percent (73%) believe the economy is in a recession and 74% say the economy is getting worse. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of adults say they’re eating out less now than they were six months ago.

While these numbers continue to tank, Obama’s approval ratings remain high. Obama has a +19 approval index, while Bush has a –32 Presidential Approval Index.

Speaking of that, it’s time to rant about something that has been really bothering me. What the hell is Bush doing? Back during the Great Depression, FDR was on the radio nonstop reassuring the American people that things will be fine. He communicated plans and stayed out front of this nation’s greatest economic disaster.