independent voters

Yesterday TPM ran a story talking about how Tuesday’s election made healthcare reform just a “bit easier”. Here is the basic overview of that reasoning:

The NY-23 seat abdicated by Republican John McHugh (who resigned to become Secretary of the Army) went to Democrat Bill Owens--the first Democrat to hold the seat in over a century. And the CA-10 seat abdicated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher (who resigned to become Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs) went to Democrat John Garamendi.

That creates some simple arithmetic. Yesterday, Democrats had 256 voting members in the House. By week's end, they'll have 258. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford to lose no more than 38 Democratic votes on a landmark health care reform bill. Next week, after Owens and Garamendi are sworn in, she can lose up to 40. For legislation this historic and far-reaching, she'll need every vote she can get--and both seem likely to support reform

Sadly this little celebratory post may have been premature. Democrats have never been good at reading the tea leafs, and that is becoming more evident as election 2009 fades further into history:

Democrats on Capitol Hill began a nervous debate Wednesday about the course President Obama has set for their party, with some questioning whether they should emphasize job creation over some of the more ambitious items on the president's agenda.

The right was trying to say that Powell's endorsement of Obama wouldn't do much. Well that appears to be a false notion according to a new poll:

First on Powell - Two in 10 independent voters said they are more inclined to vote for Obama because of Powell's backing; 4 percent said they were nudged the other way.

So 20% are more likely to vote for Obama now, but only 4% are going for McCain? That seems like a 5-1 bounce in Obama's direction. Right wing talking heads loose another talking point to facts.

There has been a lot of confusion since the Ohio Primary. Some people have labeled it as an "open primary". As a former precinct captain, I can tell you that is not necessarily the case.

While you are allowed to change parties when voting in the primary, you are required to sign a form stating that you are doing so because you uphold the political beliefs of that party.

Ohio's primary system is semi-closed in the sense that voters are required to declare their party affiliation on primary day. Independent voters may ask for a Democratic or Republican Party ballot with no questions asked. But the law requires poll workers to challenge voters who have declared themselves Democrats or Republicans during the last two years.

Crossover voters must sign a form stating they intend to uphold the principles of their new party. If they refuse to sign, they may still vote, but the ballot will be counted as "provisional," giving the board of elections 10 days to investigate its veracity. In an even more bizarre twist under Ohio law, if a majority of poll workers doubt the loyalty of a crossover voter, they may classify the ballot cast as provisional, whether the voter signs the form or not.

During this year's primary there were numerous voters who crossed over from Republican to Democrat in order to vote for Hillary. This followed Rush Limbaughs urging for Republicans to do just that. People even went as far as to appear on TV saying they did this because Rush urged them to. So the question must be answered if Limbaugh invoked a criminal act.

Now we have an investigation into people switching parties in order to answer Rush's wish:

This is some great news from the Buckeye State:

Democrat Ted Strickland has surged to a surprising lead of 20 percentage points in the first Dispatch Poll on Ohio’s Nov. 7 race for governor.

Meanwhile, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds an 8-point edge in his bid to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine.

Strickland’s 47-to-27 advantage over GOP rival J. Kenneth Blackwell is fueled by a more than 3-to-1 lead among independent voters, combined with Blackwell’s inability to sell himself to Ohio Republicans.

If Blackwell ends up stealing pulling off this election, then my state of Ohio is all but destroyed. We really need a good man like Ted Strickland to take control of Columbus and start sweeping out the corruption that has plagued it for all to long.

If you get a minute, read the entire article as it provides some great insight into what lies ahead for not only Ohio, but the country as a whole.