Polls

Markos has just released a new poll with some very interesting numbers. These are from self-identified Republicans:

Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not?

Yes 39
No 32
Not Sure 29

I would love to know what high crimes and misdemeanors they believe he has committed.

Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?

Yes 63
No 21
Not Sure 16

Again – a total myth. President Obama is to the right of Hillary Clinton and they still think he is some socialist. Why? Because of the bank bailouts? Those were enacted under Bush and heavily supported by John McCain – the Republican nominee at the time.

Markos has much more on this madness.

Gallup has a new poll out showing that a majority of Americans wants Congress to suspend the current health care legislation:

These results are not shocking, but I really wish Gallup would have thrown in the third option of having no reform at all. If that were the case then the 39% would still be there, but then we would see a split in the second column, probably along the lines of 35%/20%. It would just be really interesting to see the number of Americans who don’t want any reform at all. Even Cheney had 20% of the country who approved of him as vice-President.

Yes we really need Sarah Palin to run in 2012. Just check this out:[1]

A new CBS News poll finds that a large majority of Americans say they do not want former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to run for president.

Specifically, 71 percent say they do not want the former Republican vice presidential nominee to run for president, while 21 percent say they do want her to run.

When the results are split out by party, 56 percent of Republicans say they do not want her to seek the office and 30 percent do. Meanwhile, 88 percent of Democrats do not want her to run. Among independents, 65 percent do not want her to run and 25 percent do.

She would be cancer to the Republican chances in 2012.

Just now tweeted by them.

Full details of the poll here. Sounds like a lot of troubling numbers coming in for Democrats.

If this keeps up then we might finally get rid of Lieberman in 2012:

More than 80 percent (81 percent) of Democrats now say they disapprove of the job Lieberman is doing with only 14 percent approving. Among Republicans, 48 percent disapprove of the senator with just 39 approving. And among independents, 61 percent disapprove of Lieberman's antics with just 32 percent approving.

"It all adds up to a 25% approval rating with 67% of his constituents giving him bad marks," the study concludes. "Barack Obama's approval rating with Connecticut Republicans is higher than Lieberman's with the state's Democrats."

This also proves another thing. Lieberman didn’t make his choices on health care reform to reflect his constituents. Instead we now know he did it for himself. This is why we really need a constitutional amendment to allow recalls of all our elected officials. We shall call it “The Lieberman Amendment”.

Quinnipiac has released a new poll with a lot of focus on health care. As to be expected, the public still isn’t that thrilled with the reform:

21. From what you've heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress?

On thing that really sticks out at me is the amount of Democrats who “don’t know” yet rather they support the bill or not. I believe a lot of people are in the same position I am – waiting to see what happens in conference.

Interesting also is how much people disapprove the way President Obama has handled health care:

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling – health care?

 Greg Sargant points out that in a new CNN poll there is a 6 point uptick in support for the Senate bill. There are some other numbers in that poll that are very interesting:

Thinking about the health care and health insurance that is available to most Americans, do you think the proposals in the Senate bill would change things for the better, change things for the worse, or not make any real changes at all?
34% Change for the better, 38% Change for the worse, 26% No change

Thinking about the health care and health insurance that is available to you and your immediate family, do you think the proposals in the Senate bill would change things for the better, change things for the worse, or not make any real changes at all?
22% Change for the better, 37% Change for the worse, 39% No change

These two questions were rotated in the polling, so they each represent a 50% coverage of those polled. It’s interesting that while support for the bill has gone up (even though it is still widely opposed), the number of people who thinks the bill will do actual good remains low and out numbered by those who think it will do more harm than good. In all honesty I think we should look at change for the worse and no change as the same thing.

Once this bill gets out of Congress and President Obama signs it, then I really hope he is ready for a sell job for the rest of his time in office.

Let’s examine the facts. The current polling shows the public very turned off by this bill:

That alone gives the Republicans an excellent platform in 2010 and 2012. Given the fact that the good parts of the health care bill won’t really be felt for 5 years, that spells extremely bad news for Democrats and can turn into trouble at the polls.

What Obama needs to do is have a prime time press conference after signing this bill and lay out exactly what it will do for the people. No B.S. – explain the facts and explain them well. He also needs to direct his web gurus to launch a government site where people can punch in their info and get an idea of how it will affect them personally.

This is going to be the hardest sell job of his life – no questions asked.

The major problem we face is that the Republicans can easily regain control by the time this bill really takes affect and then they can start stripping out the things they don’t like. Given their track record that will mean things like the limited cost-control/new regulations put into place. They are the party of Reagan after all.

Sadly this is where the public option would have been perfect. A robust public option that started taking care of people before 2012 would have given the people something they like and something the Republicans dare not touch. Now they don’t have that, and in all honesty I don’t see Republicans getting rid of mandates.

So where does that leave us?

Well we are all screwed if Obama doesn’t sell the hell out of this bill. A Republican controlled government will see control shift back to the private sector and we will most likely still be required to purchase insurance by law, or even vouchers.

I know there is a lot of optimism on the left that “we can improve it later”, and I really hate to piss on everyone’s celebration but I am a realist. Short of some absolute miracle where the job market does a 180 in the next 10 months, the Democrats are going to suffer major losses in November. We are looking at maybe a 4-5 seat majority in the Senate and the House isn’t shaping up much better. The time for change is quickly escaping us. Once that happens that turns this bill, being sold as a building block for better reform, into an anchor around the necks of Democrats.

Sorry to be brutally honest and I seriously hope I am wrong, but this is exactly what I see happening. As things stand right now I can see us being worse off in ten years than we are now.

Those of us opposing this bill are in the solid majority:

Conducted by Research 2000 for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) and Democracy for America (DFA), the survey finds only 33 percent of likely voters favor a health care bill that does not include a public health insurance option and does not expand Medicare, but does require all Americans to get health insurance. Slightly more Democrats -- 37 percent -- favor the idea, while only 30 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of independents do.

But look at what happens when the Medicare buy-in or public option are added in:

Meanwhile, if the public option and Medicare buy-in are added, 58 percent of people support the idea. The number of Republican supporters drops to 22 percent, but independent support rises to 57 percent and Democratic support to a whopping 88 percent.

Democrats support jumps by over 2 times, and Independent support is close to the same. Removing Medicare expansion and the public option are deal killers.

Adding to that only 1/3 of voters support the mandate without a public option and 1/3 of Democrats are now less likely to vote in 2010.

How’s the for change?

Generally the “threat of not voting” numbers never really pan out. People will realize that the alternative is much worse than the current members, but given the fact we are seeing a foundation of the Democratic platform go up in flames by its own party, this could really end up happening. It will also be interesting to see how it translates into fundraising for Democrats.

Chuck Todd tweeted about a new WSJ/MSNBC poll that is to be released later today:

That’s not good news for HCR at all.

The Democrats are pissing away everything we all worked for these past few years:

Eleven months before crucial midterm elections, a national poll indicates that the public is divided over whether the country would be better off with Democrats or Republicans controlling Congress.

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday, 40 percent of people questioned say the U.S. would be better off if Democrats ran Congress while 39 percent feel things would be better if Republicans took charge on Capitol Hill. The 1-point margin is a statistical tie.

Support for Democrats is down from a 10-point advantage in August and a 25-point margin in January.

I’m hearing more and more people I know who have been solid, very dedicated Democrats for years saying they are fed up. These aren’t bloggers or people who follow politics. These are the people who go out and knock on doors, put up signs and man the phone banks. The utter lack of leadership and constant caving to the right has pushed these people, and millions of others away from the Democratic Party. Great job dems!

Remember last month when that memo from FOX News got leaked that said they wouldn’t tolerate any more on air errors, and if they happen people could lose their jobs? Well let’s see if it works:

Last week, Fox and Friends showed a Rasmussen poll graphic revealing that a whopping 120 percent of the American public believes scientists may be falsifying research to support their own theories on global warming:

So Fox – who will be getting the ax for this? We’ll all be waiting your response.

Since the right loves citing Rasmussen polls, I decided this one is worth highlighting:

In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.

Republicans are actually losing out to a non-party. These numbers could be construed as bad for the Democrats also, but no where near as bad as they are for the GOP. At least the Democrats are coming out on top.

Image via Wikipedia

We knew that it was only a matter of time before the public shifted the blame of the economic mess from Republicans to Democrats and that time has come:

Nearly two years into the recession, opinion about which political party is responsible for the severe economic downturn is shifting, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that 38 percent of the public blames Republicans for the country's current economic problems. That's down 15 points from May, when 53 percent blamed the GOP. According to the poll 27 percent now blame the Democrats for the recession, up 6 points from May. Twenty-seven percent now say both parties are responsible for the economic mess.

The problem is that America isn’t seeing any improvement in the economy. Sure Congress and the White House can point to Wall Street, but that doesn’t mean a damn thing to the average citizen, who is out of work. It’s the common disconnect that occurs between Washington and Main Street USA.

What President Obama needs to do is hold one of his prime time pressers, which he seems to have abandoned, and tell the people who he plans on creating new jobs. Sure he is doing things like this “job summit”, but when you look at who’s attending you quickly realize that Obama isn’t looking for any new ideas. Some of the country’s greatest economic minds aren’t on the list, and that is not only a crime, but a waste of some great talent.

The White House needs to show America that they are serious about turning the economy around for Main Street and they need to do it now. If they wait until 2010 then they can watch their support in Congress really dwindle. As matter of fact it will be like 1994 all over again.

CNN has ran a very interesting poll that gives us a lot to think about:

The poll indicates that a slight majority, 51 percent, of Republicans would prefer to see the GOP in their area nominate candidates who agree with them on all the major the issues even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democratic candidate. Forty-three percent of Republicans say they would rather have candidates with whom they don't agree on all the important issues but who can beat the Democrats.

Democrats polled seemed to place a slightly higher priority on electoral victory: 58 percent say that they would like their party to nominate candidates who can beat Republicans, even if they don't agree with those candidates on all the issues. Fewer than 4 in 10 Democrats say they would rather see their party nominate candidates who agree with them on all major issues, but have a poor chance of beating the Republican candidate.

When you first read this you would assume that the Republicans put issues ahead of party, which seems like a great thing. Actually it isn’t. What the poll shows is that the Republicans have an 8 point deficit in self-identified Republicans believing in the party, while Democrats are +20. Here’s the reason given for this:

"One reason for the difference between the parties: the Democrats have a relatively even split on ideological grounds. Thirty-four percent of Democrats are liberal, 40 percent are moderates and less than one in four call themselves conservatives," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

By contrast, 73 percent of Republicans questioned in the poll say they are conservatives, with only 26 percent describing themselves as liberal or moderate Republicans.

At the beginning of the decade hearing things like “the liberal Republican” wasn’t all that uncommon. They may hold a very conservative fiscal view, but a liberal social view. The Republican party has declared war on those individuals and forced them out of office, leaving them with a very small tent. Somehow the brain trust of the GOP believes it is easier to change a countries ideology than it is to be more accepting of varying ideologies – a suicidal move indeed.

Now the conservatives are certain to rally behind that 73% number, where Republicans identify themselves as conservative, but we need to remember that only 20% of this country identifies themselves as Republican, so in the larger scale that is a very dismal number. As more Republicans start feeling pushed out by the GOP, like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, then we will see that 20% shrink even more. Of course that 73% may become more like 80%, but given the nature of our political system and the difficulty in a 3rd party candidate winning, it becomes more likely that the few remaining Republicans that chose to leave the party will become Democrats – a place where they can be embraced.