A Closer Look At Presidential Approval Ratings

While we are not near the end of President Bush’s time in the
Oval Office (very unfortunate), his latest approval rating shows him as being in
the dump. I decided to look at some previous polling data for past President’s
and found some interesting numbers. While searching, the only resource I could
find was ABC who keeps a nice “poll vault” on their site. The following is the
approval rating of President’s as they left office.

Going from the ABC poll vault, the latest approval rating they had for our
current President was from a Poll conducted last month, in which the President
was sitting at a 43% approval rating. That puts him between Carter and Johnson
on the history charts if his numbers do not change.

This goes to show you that unless President Bush makes some major policy
shifts, he will most likely end up as one of the lowest rated Presidents we have
had in recent history.  One key factor that could affect his approval
rating will be the outcome of the Valerie Plame investigation. If in fact
indictments are handed down to administration officials, then you can bet on his
numbers taking a serious dive. If there are no indictments handed down then he
might enjoy a small gain. That is just in human nature. People are more apt to
act against bad news than good news.

The other factor will come a little over a year from now when we face the
mid-term congressional elections. If the Democrats manage to take control back
of at least one floor in Congress, then you can almost be certain that
investigations will start into other questionable acts. The only two Presidents
we have had the history of this data who could handle such pressure and yet
maintain a high approval rating were Bill Clinton and Ronald Regan. Both of
these men had a connect with the people that Bush seemed to have at first but
quickly lost.

We also need to look at Iraq. There is now talk of a substantial troop
withdrawal starting next year. While at first thought you might consider that a
guaranteed approval rating booster, the long term affects might not be there.
Iraq is on the verge of civil war as it is, and there is no improvement in
sight. Even if we do bring home a substantial number of troops, we are still
going to have to maintain a presence there and assist the Iraqi government with
fighting the insurgency. This means people will be happy at the first glimpse of
troops coming home, but start getting upset as the rest are still stuck in Iraq.
Furthermore, if Iraq deteriorates even more after we leave, that will cause even
more drastic results on the President’s approval rating.

We are stuck with a lame duck President right now. Second term Presidents,
while not worrying about re-election, are worried about the legacy they will
leave. What kind of President will they be remembered as? That is the question
all second term Presidents ask themselves. Looking at the top two on the table
above, they left with great legacies and the numbers reflect that. President
Bush’s legacy is shaping up to be a failing war in Iraq and a world changed by
terrorism. Furthermore, he is looking at leaving a record deficit after coming
into office with a surplus. This is not a legacy to leave behind, and will lead
to another President coming in to straighten it out.