The WaPo has an interesting article today regarding the mid-term elections:
There’s probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That’s the prevailing view in Washington today.
But it’s wrong.
If history is any guide, we’re heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.
Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering. Bush’s job-approval rating is below 40 percent, and congressional job approval is more than 10 percentage points lower. Only a quarter of the electorate thinks the country is moving in the right direction, and voters are unhappy with the economy under Bush. Finally, Democrats hold a double-digit lead as the party the public trusts to do a better job of tackling the nation’s problems and the party it would like to see controlling Congress.
What’s causing the skepticism about Democrats’ chances for victory in November are changing election patterns. Until recently, one of the few iron laws of American politics was that the president’s party loses House seats in midterm elections, with the size of the loss depending on how many seats are at risk and how the public evaluates the president’s performance. But all that seemed to change in 1998.
The real interesting part is here, where it highlights the biggest obstacle for Democrats:
First, party divisions may have hardened so much that few voters will be open to conversion. Party-line voting is at its highest level in decades. While many GOP voters are critical of Bush and the Republicans in Congress, many may return to the fold by November. On the other hand, there are enough pure independents and weak partisans to make a significant shift in the national vote possible.
Second, polls reveal a Democratic advantage in the level of interest in the midterm elections comparable to what the Republicans enjoyed in 1994. But it’s still uncertain whether Republicans’ traditionally higher turnout rates, combined with the GOP’s vaunted get-out-the-vote operation, will significantly reduce or eliminate that advantage.
Third, when the president is in political peril, it is easier for the opposition party to recruit strong candidates and raise campaign money. But many analysts have noted the absence of strategic behavior on the part of the Democrats, who have failed to recruit good candidates and have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage.
The biggest obstacle for Democrats is motivating people to get out to vote. It really should be a none issue considering the current state of our nation and the increasing disapproval of Bush and the Republicans, but we can not dismiss it as such.
The Democrats really need to invent a great “get out to vote” campaign and push it hard in every district. This is something that should be devised at the national level and sent down to the state and local levels to implement. Simple things like ride-sharing to the polls offer great assistance. If 1/2 of the voters take a neighbor, family member or friend to the polls so they can cast their decision, a Democratic victory can be all but done.
The local level of the party is the perfect place to organize this system. Considering the range in polling times, geographic locations and numerous other obstacles, only the local level has the tools necessary to accommodate this. Publicity aide needs to come from the national and state level, as local parties are financially strapped during the elections. The full planning and implementation must come from the DNC, however.
Even if no real plan is put into play, we can all do our part for this effort. Just offer to give someone you know a ride to the poll. Make sure they know you are willing to help them get their vote out. We need every single vote more then ever before!