Counting The Delegates

Currently Obama is ahead by 125 pledged delegates. The Clinton campaign is hoping to end the primary season only behind by 30 delegates. As near as I can tell that is going to be extremely hard to achieve. Going through numerous scenarios they might end up down 75-100 pledged delegates, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them down closer to 150. The only real chance Clinton has is to have a landslide in some key states, like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. That means she would have to break the 35% threshold in those states.

Going by the current polls she does have a substantial lead in PA, but that has been closing up. Since they are pretty far down the road, a continue Obama landslide could easily throw PA into Obama’s corner.

These numbers are taking into consideration the pledged delegates only. We still have the super delegates to figure up. While Clinton is leading in that race, a lot of Super Delegates will end up going with the leader in pledged delegates. That means the scales could easily tip in Obama’s favor on super delegates. As matter of fact we might see this start to happen in the next few weeks, if Obama continues to widen his margin on pledged delegates.

So here we have the delegate counts as of now: