Intoxination

Counting The Delegates

Currently Obama is ahead by 125 pledged delegates. The Clinton campaign is hoping to end the primary season only behind by 30 delegates. As near as I can tell that is going to be extremely hard to achieve. Going through numerous scenarios they might end up down 75-100 pledged delegates, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them down closer to 150. The only real chance Clinton has is to have a landslide in some key states, like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. That means she would have to break the 35% threshold in those states.

Going by the current polls she does have a substantial lead in PA, but that has been closing up. Since they are pretty far down the road, a continue Obama landslide could easily throw PA into Obama’s corner.

These numbers are taking into consideration the pledged delegates only. We still have the super delegates to figure up. While Clinton is leading in that race, a lot of Super Delegates will end up going with the leader in pledged delegates. That means the scales could easily tip in Obama’s favor on super delegates. As matter of fact we might see this start to happen in the next few weeks, if Obama continues to widen his margin on pledged delegates.

So here we have the delegate counts as of now:

CNN MSNBC FOX CBS ABC AVERAGE
Clinton 1211 969 1198 1185 1220 1156.6
Obama 1252 1078 1223 1251 1261 1213
McCain 827 801 821 812 819 816
Huckabee 217 240 241 199 240 227.4
Romney 286 282 282 166 282 259.6
Paul 16 14 14 10 n/r 13.5
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