It seems like every day we now get more and more people saying that the Republicans will most likely loose the House this fall:

After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.

Sixty-five days before the election, the signs of Republican vulnerability are widespread.

Indiana, which President Bush carried by 21 percentage points in 2004, now has three Republican House incumbents in fiercely contested races. Around the country, some of the most senior Republicans are facing their stiffest challenges in years, including Representative E. Clay Shaw Jr. of Florida, the veteran Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee; Representative Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut, a state increasingly symbolic of this year’s political unrest; and Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, the No. 4 Republican in the House.

Two independent political analysts have, in recent weeks, forecast a narrow Democratic takeover of the House, if current political conditions persist. Stuart Rothenberg, who had predicted Democratic gains of 8 to 12 seats in the House, now projects 15 to 20. Democrats need 15 to regain the majority. Charles Cook, the other analyst, said: “If nothing changes, I think the House will turn. The key is, if nothing changes.”

Republican leaders are determined to change things. Unlike the Democrats of 1994, caught off guard and astonished when they lost control of the Senate and the House that year, the Republicans have had ample warning of the gathering storm

We definitely need the Democrats to take over the House this fall, but we also need to make sure they are ready for any punches the Republicans are willing to pull out between now and November. I feel one of those punches may still be the October surprise I predicted last week – the removal of Rumsfeld. Considering Iraq is at the forefront of all issues this fall, that could have serious adverse reaction to what happens.

While most Republicans deny that they are in danger of loosing the House, they all admit that they have a hard struggle ahead to keep control. The fact that they admit this really speaks volumes about the public perception of the Republican party. In 2000, after the last census, Republicans worked hard to redesign their district lines in order to guarantee their seats in the House. Even with that gerrymandering, they still have to fight that hard. If the lines weren’t adjusted in 2000, there would be no doubt the Republicans would end up loosing this year.