It looks like Obama did. First a CNN phone poll concluded this:

Who won… Obama 51%, McCain 38%.
Who would better handle Iraq: Obama 52%, McCain 47%.
Economy: Obama 58%, McCain 37%.

By 40%-22%, a CBS snap poll found undecided voters favored Obama:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

So the worse case scenario is that tonight ends up a tie once all the real polls start coming up. Even at that point, it’s a big win for Obama. McCain is considered a great debater and tonight was on the subject he is supposed to be best at. I got a feeling the McCain campaign is scrambling to figure out what to do now, even though they won’t publicly admit it.