Without the public option the Senate bill still will cost an additional $19 billion according to the much anticipated CBO report. Also premiums won’t go down with the removal of the public option, as some had been pushing:

The CBO has concluded that, on average, premiums will be the same as they would have been if the Senate had the public option, but that the public option saved the federal government more money by putting downward pressure on the premiums of low-cost private plans, which will be heavily subsidized.

The public option actually save the government money – kind of screws the conservative argument for it, doesn’t it?

We also have new abortion restrictions now, but those are much more lax than the Stupak amendment passed by the House. This has now put Bart Stupak on the war path and he is actually crossing the aisle and working with Mitch McConnell to kill the bill.

Where does this leave us with the fate of a final bill?

Well once it passes the Senate, and all indications is that it will, it goes to conference where the House and Senate bills are merged. The Senate bill is a big change from the House Bill that passed last month by a vote of 220-215, so any changes, or lack their of, are going to be dangerous. Ben Nelson already made it clear today that if there are too many changes he will side with the Republicans to filibuster the bill in the Senate when they vote on the conference report.

But what about the House?

That is the $871 billion question right now. No one knows what is going to happen, but given the Bart Stupak news today it doesn’t look so good. It’s becoming obvious he isn’t going to vote for the bill without his amendment, so they better put it in in conference or prepare to fight.

There is a chance that this could lead the bill to dying in conference. That happens quiet commonly and given the passionate nature of this fight, it wouldn’t be a shock to see it happen again. Hoyer knows what he needs and Reid knows what he needs to pass that bill. Right now it looks like they may have some very different objectives.

Even if the bill does make it out of conference then both houses have to vote to accept the conference report. Welcome to the next stage of the fight, which could shift focus back to the house. As it stands, without Stupak the House vote would drop to 219-216. It will take only a couple more members of congress to flip to the no column and this bill will be dead. Given the new abortion language and the removal of the public option, losing 2 more votes is a very, very real possibility.

Of course no one knows if they will pick up any votes either. The Senate bill costs over $100 billion less than the House bill, so there is a chance #hcr could pick up a few more voters from the no column.

All in all the whip count is going to be very interesting to watch. A lot of people aren’t focusing on the House right now, but attention should start pointing that way really soon.