As Chris Cillizza points out there was one big news item last week that got lost in the shuffle – redistricting. Look at this break down of states that will gain and lose seats according to the Census Bureau’s early estimates:

States Gaining Seats
Arizona (+1)*: Gov. Jane Brewer (R) up in 2010; state Senate 18 R, 12 D; state House 35 R, 25 D
Florida (+1): Open seat race in 2010; state Senate 26 R, 14 D; state House 76 R, 44 D
Georgia (+1): Open seat race in 2010; state Senate 34 R, 22 D; state House 105 R, 75 D
Nevada (+1): Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) up in 2010; state Senate 12 D, 9 R; state House 28 D, 14 R
South Carolina (+1): Open seat race in 2010; state Senate 27 R, 19 D; state House 71 R, 53 D
Texas (+4): Gov. Rick Perry (R) up in 2010; state Senate 19 R, 12 D; state House 77 R, 73 D
Utah (+1): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) is up in 2010; state Senate 21 R, 8 D; state House 53 R, 22 D
Washington (+1)*: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D); state Senate 31 D, 18 R; state House 63 D, 35 R

States Losing Seats
Illinois (-1): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is up in 2010; state Senate 37 D, 22 R; state House 70 D, 48 R
Iowa (-1)*: Gov. Chet Culver (D) is up in 2010; state Senate 32 D, 8 R; state House 56 D, 44 R
Louisiana (-1): Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) is up in 2011; state Senate 22 D, 15 R; state House 52 D, 50 R
Massachusetts (-1): Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is up in 2010; state Senate 35 D, 5 R; state House 143 D, 16 R
Michigan (-1): Open seat in 2010; state Senate 22 R, 16 D; state House 66 D, 43 R
Minnesota (-1): Open seat in 2010; state Senate 46 D, 21 R; state House 87 D, 47 R
New Jersey (-1)*: Gov. Chris Christie (R); state Senate 23 D, 17 R; state House 47 D, 33 R
New York (-1): Gov. David Paterson (D) is up in 2010; state Senate 32 D, 30 R; state House 109 D, 41 R
Ohio (-2): Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is up in 2010; state Senate 21 R, 12 D; state House 53 D, 46 R
Pennsylvania (-1): Open seat in 2010; state Senate 30 R, 20 D; state House 104 D, 99 R

These two lists really paint a rough picture for Democrats in 2012, with red states looking at picking up 9 new congressional districts. But this isn’t limited to just congressional district, it will also effect the electoral college. Here is the current electoral college make up:

(credit: Wikipedia)

Now for the electoral college map with the new changes put in:

If we break it down by numbers, say we take the 2008 election and pretend the 2012 election is the exact same outcome with the new electoral college we see:

Like I said – Obama still wins, but the win isn’t quiet as big.

This illustrates a problem I have had with people saying we need to “fix it later” on health care, without providing real details as to how or, more importantly, when. 2010’s midterm election will result in less blue seats. Not only do we have a bad economy working against us, but we have the historical fact that the party that runs the White House typically loses seats in a mid-term. We need a plan on what to fix and a movement to push those fixes to start in the upcoming weeks, or else we might not have another chance for a generation. That’s also why I have been doing a strong push to fix the federal poverty level, so hopefully the two bills sitting idle in both chambers can start getting some much needed attention.