Here is an interesting article that doesn’t paint the pretty picture in Iraq
that the administration would want us to believe.

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Despite US claims of progress in quelling the
insurgency in Iraq, it remains as robust as ever and could grow a good deal
stronger, according to a new study.

The study by two veteran defense analysts working for the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy also said the US operation in Iraq was at a
“tipping point” that will last for six to nine months.

“I think the outcome of this tipping period is probably going to dictate
whether or not the US effort in Iraq succeeds or fails,” analyst Jeffrey
White said at a lunch unveiling the report.

The study said the insurgency, comprised of nationalists, members of
Saddam Hussein’s toppled regime and foreign Islamic fighters, showed no sign
of losing steam 32 months after the US-led invasion.

“Although thousands of insurgents have been killed and tens of thousands
of Iraqis have been detained … incident and casualty data reinforce the
impression that the insurgency is as robust and lethal as ever,” it said.

The following graph represents the growing number of fatalities we experience
per month. While we had some months with higher fatality levels in 2004, over
all the monthly rate of fatality is increasing.

Data courtesy of ICASUALTIES.ORG

The report goes on to further detail more serious problems we could
experience in Iraq if the insurgency continues to grow.

Moreover, the researchers said, the insurgency has managed to exploit
only a fraction of the disgruntled minority Sunni Muslim population with any
kind of military training.

“Should the insurgency succeed in exploiting this untapped potential, it
could greatly increase its military capabilities,” they wrote.

This week Rumsfeld said he had ordered Pentagon staff to no longer refer to
it as an “insurgency” because he doesn’t feel they are the same as insurgency
but would rather they be grouped in as terrorists. This report paints a
different picture of that:

US officials cited by the report estimated that the Sunni insurgency
counted up to 20,000 members, including 3,500 active fighters. White told
AFP the total number of supporters could top 100,000.

While Washington has billed Iraq as the central front in its war on
terror, White said foreign jihadists represented only 5-7 percent of the
insurgency and did not account for the majority of attacks or fatalities.

But he said say the anti-American forces were making extensive use of
religion and, in a new development, former members of Saddam’s largely
secular regime were identifying increasingly with the Islamists.

“There is some kind of merging going on,” White told the lunchtime
audience. “Whether this is a marriage of convenience or a marriage of
commitment remains to be seen.”

This further solidifies the argument that the War in Iraq has in fact made us
less safe. The war turned out to be an effective recruiting campaign for al
Qaeda and that recruitment stands to grow in large numbers. To understand the
reasons why you must understand Osama. Osama defected from Saudi and became a
terrorist organization after the first gulf war when he told Saudi leaders that
the infidels would never leave once they came. He was of course talking about
our troops in the first gulf war which remained in the region ever since. The
second Iraq war has layer further merit to his claim. In the Arab would he could
end up being considered a “prophet” some day for this.

One fear we have had is that our next targets will be Iran and/or Syria.
There have been numerous claims of the countries aiding the insurgency and that
would add to the reasons for attacking these two nations. The report gives us a
somewhat different view on that.

The report said the insurgency had no hierarchy, but was a “web of
networks” drawing financial support from inside and outside Iraq. It said
support from Syria and Iran was “not insignificant” but not essential.

“The insurgency has access to all the weapons, explosives, financial
resources, and trained manpower it needs, in amounts sufficient to sustain
current activity levels indefinitely — assuming continued Sunni political
support,” it said.

The idea this more so gives me is that if we decided to take action against
Iran or Syria then we would actually have the same end result as we do in Iraq –
more support in favor of the insurgency and more enemies.

You can be certain this report will be ignored by the administration while
they continue to try and sell the war. According to this report, the war is no
where near over and we can expect a long time commitment to get this to work.
That means more money and more lives and that is something the American people
are not willing to spend.

You can view the complete article
here.