February 24, 2016 /

No Donald Trump Didn't Win The Latino Vote

Since the Nevada caucus yesterday, there has been a lot of celebrating that Trump won the latino vote. While he did get the most in the caucus, the numbers show a larger problem for the GOP and Trump.

No Donald Trump Didn't Win The Latino Vote

Seems like there is a lot of celebrating on the right over Trump’s victory yesterday. Not the fact that he won in a state that he should have won, but pointing to this one segment from the entrance polls:

Even the media is celebrating that 45%. As I write this, I have MSNBC on and they are talking in shock over Trump winning 45% of the Hispanic/Latino vote.

But is that something to really celebrate?

If you look at that chart I posted, focus on the very top, where it lists the race segments. Right above Latino, you see the total number of caucus goers who actually are Latino. That number – 8%. 

That is 8% in a state with a 27.8% Hispanic/Latino population. Let’s break that down into some simple math, using a round number of 1,000,000 as the total voters in Nevada.

Total Voters 1,000,000
Total Hispanic Population 278,000
Total Hispanics In The Caucus 80,000
Total Hispanics That Caucused For Trump 36,000
Percentage of Total Hispanic/Latino Population 13%

So in actuality Trump got 13% of the Hispanic vote. And if we fast-forward to November, and assume that 8% will vote for the Republican nominee, that means the GOP side gets 80,000 votes, compares to 198,000 for the Democrats. 

Yes, Trump can celebrate winning the most of the Hispanic/Latino votes yesterday, but in reality the entire GOP should be fearful. The fact that in a state of 2.8 million people, only 71,000 came out to caucus and of those 71,000, only 5,700 were Hispanic/Latino. The GOP still has a white-people problem, and Trump is not exempt from that. 

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