Seems like there is a lot of celebrating on the right over Trump’s victory yesterday. Not the fact that he won in a state that he should have won, but pointing to this one segment from the entrance polls:
Even the media is celebrating that 45%. As I write this, I have MSNBC on and they are talking in shock over Trump winning 45% of the Hispanic/Latino vote.
But is that something to really celebrate?
If you look at that chart I posted, focus on the very top, where it lists the race segments. Right above Latino, you see the total number of caucus goers who actually are Latino. That number – 8%.
That is 8% in a state with a 27.8% Hispanic/Latino population. Let’s break that down into some simple math, using a round number of 1,000,000 as the total voters in Nevada.
|Total Hispanic Population
|Total Hispanics In The Caucus
|Total Hispanics That Caucused For Trump
|Percentage of Total Hispanic/Latino Population
So in actuality Trump got 13% of the Hispanic vote. And if we fast-forward to November, and assume that 8% will vote for the Republican nominee, that means the GOP side gets 80,000 votes, compares to 198,000 for the Democrats.
Yes, Trump can celebrate winning the most of the Hispanic/Latino votes yesterday, but in reality the entire GOP should be fearful. The fact that in a state of 2.8 million people, only 71,000 came out to caucus and of those 71,000, only 5,700 were Hispanic/Latino. The GOP still has a white-people problem, and Trump is not exempt from that.