March 2, 2016 /

Updated Turnout Tracking Including Super Tuesday

I just updated the turnout tracking to include yesterday's contests. The trend I've been seeing is continuing, and that is problematic.

Updated Turnout Tracking Including Super Tuesday

Some notable things here:

  • Colorado: They voted on Feb. 4 in 2008, making it an early state. 
  • Texas: Democrats tried a test run of a combination caucus/primary system in 2008. They abandoned it after that year and went straight primary again.

If you look at the trends though, the dismal turnout for Democrats is continuing. And while Hillary did win the most states, Bernie won the blue and swing states, save Massachusetts. For some reason I see a lot of Hillary people putting up states like Georgia as a swing state this year. I’m not really sure how they are coming up with that, as the last time a Democrat won that state was her husband in 1992. Since then Democrats have lost that state every year by an average of about 10 points. 

To me the trends I see with the poor turnout translates to another problem I have been talking about for almost a year now – lack of voter enthusiasm. If this continues into November then the Democrats are going to have an enormous challenge to keep the White House. Even if Trump does get the Republican nomination, he might not have that much support of the American people, but he does have enthusiasm, and in a country where we damn near have to drag people to the polls, that enthusiasm is gold. 

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