The events of the last couple weeks have taken the
spotlight from other happenings in the world (rightfully so). While we look
towards the gruesome job of recovering the dead and try to figure out how to
rebuild the Big Easy and other areas along the Gulf Coast, Bush gets to look to
another few weeks of what will most likely be a politically damming series of
events.

Not only does he still have to face answering the questions
of what his administration failed to do in the wake of America’s worst disaster,
but he also has to look forward to the grand jury findings in the Valerie Plame
leak case, and the almost certainty of Iraq deteriorating as it quickly
approaches their election time.

This week, the Reuters ran an article saying the CIA leak
case is nearing “end game”. The grand jury is set to expire at the end of next
month, and there has been a sudden halt in stories coming out of the court room.
As matter of fact in the article, it says that it has been weeks since anyone
heard from Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor in charge of the investigation.

Judith Miller has now been sitting in jail for over two
months because of her decision to not comply with a court order. Time Magazine’s
attorney, Theodore Boutrous, told Reuters that “either Fitzgerald still needs
Miller or he doesn’t, It’s who blinks first. … You would think something needs
to happen soon, one way or another.” I think he hits on a very important point,
but not one that is seen relatively clearly in this quote.

Judith Miller is in jail for defying a court order. The
judge is the one who decided to lock her up and even told her that she holds the
key to getting out. That key is cooperation. Fitzgerald does not hold the key to
releasing her. Even if he does not need her, she is still in violation of the
court order.

There is a federal law that makes it a crime to defy court
orders. That is a charge that Fitzgerald could easily put against Judith Miller,
increasing her sentence up to a year. If that would happen then she would no
longer hold the key to getting out. Her only way out of jail would be to serve
the entire sentence.

This provides Fitzgerald with a very powerful bartering
tool. If his case was looking more like it was going no where, he could easily
tell Miller that he is pursuing criminal charges in hopes that she would talk
instead of facing the extended stay. The fact that he has not pursued that
avenue of leverage yet makes it more obvious that he no longer needs her and has
enough evidence to get the indictments he has been after.

The level of silence out of the prosecutor’s office, and
the court room also must be sending chills down the hall of the White House.
This is one of the highest profile cases in recent history. The White House is
facing prosecutions from it, and everyday of passing silence is a greater chance
that some key officials are going to be indicted. If there was no chance of an
indictment coming out, then it would only seem obvious that the prosecutor would
release the jury and announce that.

People have questioned Bush’s failed response last week.
They were shocked that the man who brought this nation together after 9-11 could
fail so badly in the wake of another disaster. Perhaps his mind is not as clear
as it was on 9-11. Actually it appeared more that the leak in the levees was not
the only leak the President is worried about.

Now onto Iraq. The constitution vote is just a little over
a month away. This can make or break the President’s war. If the constitution
passes, then he may regain a little of that political capital he loves to talk
about. If it fails, then he will have no more political capital for the rest of
his term.

A failing of the constitution takes us back to step one
after the toppling of Saddam’s statue. A new election has to be held for a
constitutional committee, the committee has to draft it and the people have to
vote on it again. All totaled, we would be looking at another year and a half.
That would become a time when more people question the President’s decision to
invade and more costs will incur. We already saw that the war in Iraq has
weakened our National Guard response to disasters at home. The country would not
be willing to sacrifice more to a cause that seems to be failing. This very cost
could in fact cause anarchy amongst Republican leaders who are facing mid-term
elections in 14 months.

The days are looking very dim for our President. He has a
very tough road ahead and its not one he can easily sway off of like he has done
so many times in the past. Now he must answer to the American people for his
failings and the reception of those answers is not going to be welcoming.