Time again to see how the surge is going in Iraq. This has become a monthly series for me, and a chart makes it so much easier to gauge.

First for U.S. casualties. These past three months have been the deadliest three month cycle for U.S. forces since the war began. While June was not as deadly as April and May, it was still an awfully high number when compared to the same periods of previous years:

I think a better way to describe this trend would be; “The first half of 2007 was far more deadly than the first half of any previous year since the war began”. To illustrate this a little better, I now have a new graph. This compares the first half of the years for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. Even though the war started in 2003, adding the numbers in would not give an accurate result, as the war didn’t start until March.

Even worse – if things don’t get better, we will be looking at the deadliest year since the war began. 2004 is currently the deadliest year for U.S. troops, with 849 deaths. We are well past half way there.

Now on to the death of Iraqi civilians. The AFP has an article out this morning, entitled “Iraqi civilian deaths sharply lower in June“. When you see the graph, you will see that is a true statement. It is also a little misleading:

While the numbers are down for June, there was also a decrease last June. I am sure supporters of this war will hold this article up as an example of progress in Iraq, but it can not be fairly used unless you look at the bigger picture. With the exception of February, the comparison seems to hold a pretty constant ratio. For example – casualties were up in May of this year, but they were also up in May of last year. The same can be said of March, while April saw a decrease in both years.

Over all, it appears the surge is going the same. That is perhaps a key reason why we saw Dick Lugar break ranks with Bush this week, and more Republicans following. We are approaching the point where McCain, Bush and Lieberman will be the only ones cheerleading for this cause.